10 best predictions for the big Saturday of college football. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for the Week 4 games?
Results So Far: 28-12-1
1) We’re FINALLY done with most of the FCS vs FBS games. The silly season is over and conference plays kicks in full force, which means …
2) Now we settle in.
Everyone overreacts after Week 1, and then everything is skewed a bit after Week 2. After Week 3 we can pretty much figure out how things are going, and that’s why the theme of the week is this …
Go with what you know until proven otherwise.
For example, I misfired last week by not going with Oklahoma -10.5 over Nebraska. We know Nebraska is bad, and until proven otherwise, the idea is to go against it when the spread is reasonable, like it was against the Sooners. Of course OU won in a walk.
You’ll see what I mean, starting with …
Click on each game for the preview
10. UMass at Temple
POINT TOTAL 43
ATS PICK UNDER
Fair warning: there’s a spiteful aspect to this pick.
Rutgers -17 over Temple was my No. 1 call of last week, and it wasn’t even close. Now the Owls owe me.
What do we know, and what did we learn from that disaster? The Temple defense is pretty good.
The offense didn’t do much of anything, but the defense held Rutgers to just over 200 yards, and that was after stuffing Lafayette.
Is there any concern that the Owl O could go off on a UMass defense that gave up 42 to Tulane and 55 to Toledo? Not really, and if it does, it’s not likely to get up to 40 and the defense might be able to take care of the rest.
UMass will score, but it should hang around 10-to-14. This will get dicey late, but this should come in around the high 30s.
Okay, now deep breath as I ditch the theme for this next pick, and we shall never speak of it again …
POINT TOTAL 33.5
ATS PICK Over
I hate this pick.
I hate picking this game, I hate that I feel compelled to add this to the list, and I hate that I’m feeding this to a trusting public that might actually watch this abomination if it invests in it one way or another.
I know, I know, I’ve hammered Iowa unders HARD so far this year, and it’s been a breeze.
How obnoxious have Iowa games been? The total points scored in the three games is 54. You know how hard that is to do?
As my standard line has been this season, you could set the total for an Iowa game at 1.5 and I’d still go under. Ha, ha – we all had a good laugh, killed some time, and …
If the final score in this is 3-2, fine.
A point total of 33.5 is just too obscene. If you take the over and it doesn’t work, it’s not your fault.
Now that I’ve gone off the rails …
POINT TOTAL 55
ATS PICK Under
I don’t like this pick either, but for an entirely different reason …
Friday night games are weird.
Everyone’s rhythm is off, there’s a strange vibe, crazy things happen, and they generally fail to follow any logic or reason.
And I know, I don’t have to add this game to the list – just like I didn’t have to put Iowa vs Rutgers on here – but if things go to form and we go with what we know, including it is a moral imperative.
Virginia just doesn’t score.
The Illinois loss got to a total of 27, and the win over Old Dominion last week ended up at 30.
Could the Cavaliers find their mojo and start winging it around like they did in 2021? Yeah, but they haven’t done it yet.
Syracuse hung 48 on the board against UConn, but that’s UConn – Virginia’s D is okay. The Purdue game was a relative shootout that went back-and-forth late, and that only got to 61 and went over on the late TD pass.
This has a far better chance of hanging around the 20s for each team than the 30s.
College Football Expert Picks, Predictions: Week 4
POINT TOTAL 65.5
ATS PICK Over
I keep waiting for Tulsa’s offensive fever to break, but it’s not happening.
It’s been one of he biggest stunners of the year so far – Tulsa leads the nation in passing after three games.
It’s averaging 413 yards per outing after bombing away on Wyoming, Northern Illinois, and Jacksonville State to get there – no one else is averaging more than 389. The O has needed to crank it up in shootout after shootout, and to be warned, there’s one big concern here.
The Old Miss defense has been outstanding.
It allowed just 13 points in three games, but it hasn’t faced a strong passing game since the 28-10 win over Troy to kick things off.
This has a few things to like. It starts with the Rebel offense finding its groove – it should handle most of the 65.5 on its own. That means Tulsa will keep firing to keep up, there should be a few late points, and something very doable like 40+ish to 20ish should combine to get to 66.
There are more point total picks to come, but until then, going with what we know …
LINE Purdue -17.5
ATS PICK Purdue
It’s scary when things seem this simple.
Florida Atlantic’s defense has been awful against the two decent teams it faced, and it hasn’t dealt with anyone like Purdue yet.
The Owls have a slew of decent things going their way, but they’ve been abysmal against anyone who can throw a forward pass – they were ripped to shreds in the 41-38 loss to Ohio, and were hit for 339 passing yards by UCF in the 40-14 loss.
By the way, Purdue likes to throw.
Everyone is on FAU, and I’m not entirely sure why. Purdue will throw for 400 yards and score in the 40s.
If you think the Owls have 24ish points in them on the road against a 1-2 Big Ten team that desperately needs a good performance thanks to last second losses to Penn State and Syracuse, okay.